Forecasting > Analysis > Review > Interactive Planner Worksheet (Forecast) > Forecast Metrics > Forecast Metrics (Fields)
Forecast Metrics (Fields)
The following describes the fields that could appear depending on how it is configured.
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Field names marked with ^ are displayed when the stream selection is set to All.
Field
Description
Average Demand
(Total Demand / # of Slice for Forecast Error Calculation) Where:
• # of Slice for Forecast Error Calculation is set on the Forecast Parameter
• Calculated for a SKU Stream when the Forecasting AutoPilot process is run
• Calculated as follows when the Forecasting - Calculate Metrics AutoPilot process is run and the following are true:
◦ The SKU Stream is an External stream
◦ The Used In Total Forecast field on the Stream Configuration Details page is set to Yes
SKU Level
Average Demand is added for all of the Streams
Part Level
Average Demand is added for all of the SKUs of the part
Location Level
Over-forecasted and under-forecasted are considered separately
Average Demand is added for all SKUs of that location
Average Historical Forecast
(Total Forecast / # of Slice for Forecast Error Calculation) Where:
• # of Slice for Forecast Error Calculation is set on the Forecast Parameter
• Calculated for a SKU Stream when the Forecasting AutoPilot process is run:
• Calculated as follows when the Forecasting - Calculate Metrics AutoPilot process is run and the following are true:
◦ The SKU Stream is an External stream
◦ The Used In Total Forecast field on the Stream Configuration Details page is set to Yes
SKU Level
Average Historical Forecast is added for all of the Streams
Part Level
Average Historical Forecast is added for all of the SKUs of the part
Location Level
Over-forecasted and under-forecasted are considered separately
Average Historical Forecast is added for all SKUs of that location
Bias
((Total Forecast - Total Demand) / # of Slice for Forecast Error Calculation) Where:
• # of Slice for Forecast Error Calculation is set on the Forecast Parameter
• Calculated for a SKU Stream when the Forecasting AutoPilot process is run:
• Calculated as follows when the Forecasting - Calculate Metrics AutoPilot process is run and the following are true:
◦ The SKU Stream is an External stream
◦ The Used In Total Forecast field on the Stream Configuration Details page is set to Yes
SKU Level
Bias is added for all of the Streams
Part Level
Bias is added for all of the SKUs of the part
Location Level
Over-forecasted and under-forecasted are considered separately
The absolute value of Bias (|Bias|)is added for all SKUs of that location
Bias Value
(Bias * Part Cost) Where:
• Calculated for a SKU Stream when the Forecasting AutoPilot process is run:
• Calculated as follows when the Forecasting - Calculate Metrics AutoPilot process is run and the following are true:
◦ The SKU Stream is an External stream
◦ The Used In Total Forecast field on the Stream Configuration Details page is set to Yes
SKU Level
Bias Value is added for all of the Streams
Part Level
Bias Value is added for all of the SKUs of the part
Location Level
Over-forecasted and under-forecasted are considered separately
The absolute value of Bias Value (|Bias Value|)is added for all SKUs of that location
Demand To Date ^
The actual demand quantity that has been recognized to date within the current time slice.
First History Date
Date of first demand history record in Servigistics for the selected part/location SKU.
Forecast Base ^
The underlying steady state forecast prior to factoring in the trend and multiplying by the seasonal index.
Forecast Error Standard Deviation ^
A measure of forecast error variability over a specified number of time slices.
For trending and highly seasonal pairs, using Forecast Error Standard Deviation (instead of History Standard Deviation) in Safety Stock calculations generates an optimal Safety Stock value.
If the forecast parameter Std Deviation - Use forecast error is set to Yes, Servigistics will use forecast errors in Forecast Error Standard Deviation calculations. Note that while both History Standard Deviation and Forecast Error Standard Deviation will be calculated, only Forecast Error Standard Deviation will be used in Safety Stock calculations.
If there are less than 3 slices of archived forecast (insufficient forecast history), Forecast Error Standard Deviation will be null and History Standard Deviation will be used in Safety Stock calculations.
Forecast Trend ^
The calculated rate of change of the forecast based on demand history.
History Analysis Slices
The number of history slices resulting from running the History Analysis process on Best Fit, Forecasting, Demand History Management, or iPlan. The value is determined by evaluating these fields in the following order:
• The override applied from the Forecast tab on the Interactive Planner Worksheet or Demand Detail page in the # of History Slices field
• The # of History Slices for History Analysis field on the History Analysis tab of the Forecast Parameters page
• The # of History Slices field on a Stream Configuration.
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These settings can also impact the number of history slices considered:
• The DMDHIST_USE_FIRST_ROUND global setting and the DMDHIST_USE_FIRST_FOUND_MIN_SLICES global setting
• The Ignore demand before first non-zero slice field on the Forecast Parameters page.
• The number of history slices can be increased by changing the value of the Maximum # of History Slices field on the Best Fit tab of the Forecast Parameters page.
History Average ^
The average historical demand for all slices used.
History Percent Error ^
History Percent Error = (History Standard Deviation / History Average) * 100
History Standard Deviation ^
A measure of historical demand variability over a specified number of time slices, calculated from either the raw demand history as downloaded from the host system or after being de-seasonalized.
If the forecast parameter Std Deviation - Use de-seasonalized and de-trended history is set to Yes, History Standard Deviation is computed using deseasonalized/detrended history. Otherwise, raw demand history data is used.
HistorySD = SQRT((SUMSQ(values) - (SUM(values)^2)/COUNT(values))/(COUNT(values) - 1))
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The number of slices used in the History Standard Deviation calculation depends on the forecast parameter Ignore demand before first non-zero slice and the global setting DMDHIST_USE_FIRST_FOUND.
MAD
Current Mean Absolute Deviation, which is a statistical measure of fit (only calculated with new period).
MAPE
Current MAPE(only calculated with new period).
Periods Between Demand
The number of periods between demands that is used to calculate intermittency. This value is calculated as slices of zero / (slices of non-zero – 1)
For example:
Consider a demand history of [5, 4, 0, 0, 3, 2, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0]
slices of zero = 6
slices of non-zero = 5
The value of the Periods Between Demand would be 6 / (5 – 1) = 1.5
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The value of the PERIODS_BETWEEN_DEMAND global setting is used for the Periods Between Demand when:
• A new parameter is created
• The value of the Periods Between Demand field is blank
The default value is displayed in parenthesis next to the label on the Best Fit tab of the Forecast Parameters page.
[Appears when Croston's Method is selected as the forecast method]
RMSE
Current Root Mean Square Error, which is a statistical measure of fit (only calculated with new period).
Scaled Percentage ^
Scaled Percentage = (History Standard Deviation / History Average ) * Forecast Average
Tracking Signal
A measurement that indicates whether the forecast average is keeping pace with any genuine upward or downward changes in demand. It monitors the forecast to see if it is biased high or low. As used in forecasting, tracking signal is the number of mean absolute deviations that the forecast value is above or below the actual occurrence.
Tracking Signal = (RSFE / count) / MAD
• RSFE = Running Sum of Forecast Errors include all slices, demand and archived forecast
• MAD = Mean Absolute Deviation
• Count = Forecast parameter "# of Slices for Forecast Error Calculation" or Best Fit parameter "Holdout Window".
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You will only see this field when Enable Tracking Signal is set to Yes for the Forecast Parameter of the selected stream. The Tracking Signal is computed for each SKU stream and the results are displayed as follows:
• On the Demand page
• On the Best Fit Management page
• As review board records for review types 138 and 139
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