Causal Forecast
Causal forecasting provides BOM based forecasting of parts at all levels in the BOM. It also forecasts failure rates for parts using historic demand and installed base. Global failure rate is calculated based on installed base and causal factors, while higher weight is given to recent installed base and failures using exponential smoothing techniques.
Use of Calculated vs Host Failure Rate (MTBF)
If you want to force the use of Host Failure Rate/MTBF in all situations for a part, then set UseHostFailureRate in IPCS_PART_MASTER to "y". When set to "n", Causal Forecasting uses a rule-based cut over from Host Failure Rate to Calculated Failure Rate.
Calculated Failure Rate is used if the following 3 thresholds are met:
◦ FAILURE_RATE_MIN_CUM_CAUSAL: The minimum cumulative causal value for a part for cut over from using Host Failure Rate to Calculated Failure Rate. This value is used unless overridden for a causal type in the CAUSAL_TYPE table. Accepted values include integers greater than 0. The default value is 1,000. This threshold is applied if causal values are applicable for a part.
◦ FAILURE_RATE_MIN_CUM_POPULATION: The minimum cumulative global population for a part to cut over from Host Failure Rate to Calculated Failure Rate. Accepted values include integers greater than 0. The default value is 30.
◦ FAILURE_RATE_MIN_DEMAND_PERIODS: The minimum number of periods after the first global demand for a part needed to cut over from Host Failure Rate to Calculated Failure Rate. Accepted values include integers greater than 0. The default value is 0.
See also